Selling sentiment declined, SHFE copper spot premiums remained firm [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Aug 25, 2025 13:35

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[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, after entering into transactions with cargoes dated next month, market trading activity is expected to decrease. Maintenance at northern smelters will reduce the supply coming to Shanghai. It is anticipated that, against a backdrop of limited domestic supply, spot premiums for SHFE copper will remain firm.

SMM, August 25:

Today, SMM reported that spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the current-month 2509 contract ranged from a premium of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 220 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 140 yuan/mt, down by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices stood at 79,270-79,520 yuan/mt. Fed Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium strengthened market expectations for an interest rate cut in September, causing the US dollar to fall below the 98 mark and copper prices to strengthen accordingly. The SHFE copper 2509 contract showed a strong trend in the morning session, hovering around 79,220 yuan/mt before rapidly surging to 79,480 yuan/mt around 11 a.m. and closing at 79,390 yuan/mt in the morning. The price spread between futures contracts for adjacent months remained nearly flat, while the backwardation structure persisted in distant months.

Daytime sales sentiment declined notably, primarily due to the upcoming transition to cargoes with invoices dated next month tomorrow and limited replenishment of imported supplies over the weekend, with some domestic arrivals being quickly traded; the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 3.15, while the sales sentiment was 3.19. . In the morning session, mainstream standard-quality copper traded at around a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with difficult access to lower-priced supplies after deals were concluded at a premium of 60-80 yuan/mt in Changzhou. Affected by copper scrap policies, non-registered and non-standard supplies saw strong trading. Although high-quality copper supplies remained scarce, market demand for them weakened, leading to a slight price decline.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, after the transition to cargoes with invoices dated next month, market trading activity is expected to decline. Maintenance at northern refineries will reduce copper supplies to Shanghai, and with limited domestic replenishment anticipated, spot premiums for Shanghai copper are expected to remain firm.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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